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In Hungary, central bank governor Gyorgy Matolcsy is under pressure from Viktor Orban's government to cut rates further ahead of local and European Parliament elections next year. Reuters GraphicsTANGIBLE BENEFITSA 2021 World Bank survey found that political meddling in central bank policy led to sustained periods of high inflation in emerging market economies such as Turkey and Argentina. "Attempts to bring the president of the NBP before the State Tribunal can be directly interpreted as an attack on the independence of the central bank," the spokesman said. How those premia evolve will depend partly on how politics in Poland and Hungary is perceived by investors to influence the central banks in the months to come. "Everything else being equal, the less independent the central bank, the more real yield you need to have to be compensated for the risk," said Arif Joshi at Lazard Asset Management.

Persons: Adam Glapinski, Gyorgy Matolcsy, Viktor Orban's, Donald Tusk's, Karen Vartapetov, Paul Gamble, Glapinski's, Glapinski, Marta Kightley, Orban, Peter Virovacz, Arif Joshi, Karol Badohal, Gergely, Mark John, Toby Chopra Organizations: WARSAW, Law and Justice, U.S . Federal Reserve, EU, Sovereign, Investor, Emerging, Fitch, Local, ING, Lazard Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Hungarian, Poland, Hungary, BUDAPEST, Europe, Turkey, Argentina, WARSAW

☆ Analysis: EUphoria! Poland election surprise spurs investor hope
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Donald Tusk, leader of the largest opposition grouping Civic Coalition (KO), delivers a speech after the exit poll results are announced in Warsaw, Poland, October 15, 2023. As Europe’s sixth-largest economy, a revitalised pro-EU attitude in Poland would be particularly welcome. The 66-year old Tusk and his pro-EU coalition allies may still have to wait weeks or even months though before getting a turn at forming a government. Duda has referred the issue at the heart of that row to a constitutional tribunal in Poland. The central bank though has slashed interest rates at its last two meetings as the election campaign burst into life.

Persons: Donald Tusk, Kacper, Poland's, Daniel Moreno, Mirabaud, PiS, Moreno, Hungary's Viktor Orban, Robert Fico, Tusk, Andrzej Duda, Duda, Viktor Szabo, Fitch, Szabo, Adam Glapinski, PiS ., Simon Quijano, Evans, Libby George, Karin Strohecker, Josie Kao Organizations: Civic Coalition, REUTERS, European Union, Law and Justice, European, EU, Brussels, PiS, Gemcorp, Ukraine, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Warsaw, Poland, Brussels, Europe, EU, Slovakia, Britain, London

[1/2] Shadow of the supporter is pictured during the election convention of Law and Justice (PiS) party, before Sunday's parliamentary elections, in Przysucha, Poland October 9, 2023. "It is the most important election we have this year in Europe," said Viktor Szabo, portfolio manager at asset manager abrdn, adding markets had not priced in scenarios such as a hung parliament or the possibility of an early election. Such a scenario would be a key positive for both the currency and Polish equities, said Anna Zadornova, an economist at UBS. "Ultimately there is a point where you need to yield to the economics and how things are going," said Kaan Nazli, a portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman. ($1 = 0.9461 euros)Reporting by Karin Strohecker and Marc Jones, editing by Alexander SmithOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Kacper, Viktor Szabo, Szabo, PiS, Daniel Wood, William Blair, Anna Zadornova, Banks, Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Adam Glapinski, Kaan Nazli, Neuberger Berman, Karin Strohecker, Marc Jones, Alexander Smith Organizations: Law, Justice, REUTERS, LONDON, abrdn, European Union, JPMorgan, Reuters Graphics EU, EU, liberal Civic Coalition, UBS, Poland's, Copley Fund, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Przysucha, Poland, Europe, loggerheads, Brussels, Romania, Hungary

WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Poland’s central bank lowered its key interest rate Wednesday, pointing to a drop in inflation despite a still-high rate of 8.2% last month, raising concerns about the cut being a political move. The National Bank of Poland cut its benchmark rate a quarter of a percentage point to 5.75%. It was the second rate cut since Sept. 9, when the central bank surprisingly slashed rates by three-quarters of a point. That's far below Poland's 8.2% inflation rate. Poland’s currency, the zloty, was slightly stronger after the rate cut.

Persons: Adam Glapinski Organizations: National Bank of Poland, Inflation, European Central Bank, Law, Justice Locations: WARSAW, Poland, Ukraine

☆ Take Five: Roll on Q4!
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A possible shutdown would be further evidence of how political polarization in Washington is weakening fiscal policymaking, Moody's says. Economists polled by Reuters expect the U.S. economy created 150,000 jobs in September versus 187,000 in August. 2/ NEW CHIEF IN TOWNThe Reserve Bank of Australia's new governor Michele Bullock, the first woman to head the bank, chairs her first meeting on Tuesday. Meanwhile, New Zealand's Reserve Bank meets on Wednesday. With the cost of living a key election battleground, the drastic cut brings relief to those struggling with mortgage repayments.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Ira Iosebashvili, Kevin Buckland, Harry Robertson, Karin Strohecker, Marc Jones, Joe Biden, Moody's, Michele Bullock, Bullock, Adam Glapinski, Dhara Ranasinghe, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, ., China, Democratic, Reuters, Reserve Bank of, New, Reserve Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Equity, Treasury, Reserve, ING reckons, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, there's, Australia, Poland, Ira, New York, Tokyo, London, Washington, China, Beijing, Poland's

[1/2] A general view of Polish shoe retailer CCC shop is pictured, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in Warsaw, Poland, September 8, 2020. "Let me tell you, there was a time when I couldn't even afford to buy salmon, for example. Buczek has benefited from the fact that PiS has raised her pension as part of hefty welfare spending moves which, opinion surveys show, are easing Poles' concerns over high inflation. The Polish minimum wage, already the highest in central Europe, will rise by nearly a fifth next year. With many houseowners on variable loan rates, Warsaw recently extended a scheme for mortgage repayment holidays into next year.

Persons: Kacper, Jadwiga Buczek, Buczek, PiS, Steffen Dyck, Adam Glapinski, Fitch, Federico Barriga Salazar, Andrzej Kuzniak, Moody's Dyck, Kacper Pempel, Jan Strupczewski, Gergely, Mark John, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Justice, European Union, European Commission, National Bank of, Sovereign Risk, Moody's, International Monetary Fund, Civic Coalition, Thomson Locations: Warsaw, Poland, WARSAW, Poland's, Europe, NBP, Brussels

☆ Polish ruling party figures would face state tribunal after election, opposition says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

FILE PHOTO-Poland's central bank governor-designate Adam Glapinski speaks during a hearing at a parliamentary panel at the Parliament in Warsaw, Poland May 20, 2016. Agencja Gazeta/Kuba Atys via REUTERS/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsWARSAW, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Poland's main opposition party said on Saturday it would convene a state tribunal if it wins October's national election to consider allegations against ruling party figures and their allies, including the president, prime minister and the governor of the central bank. The central bank said that it "never comments on statements from politicians". It also says Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki should face a state tribunal for giving the order to attempt to hold the presidential elections by post in 2020. Most polls for the national election show PiS with more than 35% of the vote, while the KO grouping has around 30%.

Persons: Adam Glapinski, Atys, KO, Donald Tusk, Tusk, PiS, Glapinski, Andrzej Duda, Mateusz Morawiecki, Alan Charlish, Mike Harrison Organizations: Agencja Gazeta, REUTERS, Rights, liberal Civic Coalition, Justice, National Bank of Poland, Thomson Locations: Warsaw, Poland, Germany, Russia

☆ Polish central bank stuns with 75 bps rate cut, zloty plunges
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( Anna Koper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

WARSAW, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Poland's central bank cut its main interest rate by 75 basis points to 6.00% on Wednesday, in a shock decision ahead of October elections that sent the zloty currency tumbling against the euro. The National Bank of Poland (NBP) said it took the decision because it expects inflation to return to target faster than originally expected. It said that the adjustment to interest rates would be "conducive to meeting the NBP inflation target in the medium term". NBP Governor Adam Glapinski had previously signalled that a rate cut could come in September if inflation fell to single digits. "We have already said that it is too early for a rate cut, and certainly such an aggressive rate cut, when the prospects (of a slowdown) in inflation are still distant," said Piotr Bielski, director of the economic analysis department of Santander Bank Polska.

Persons: Adam Glapinski, Piotr Bielski, J.P, Morgan, Wojciech Paczos, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, Anna Koper, Pawel Florkiewicz, Alan Charlish, Anna Wlodarczak, Karol Badohal, Marc Jones, Justyna Pawlak, Nick Macfie, Sharon Singleton, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Reuters, National Bank of Poland, Santander Bank Polska, Cardiff University, Justice, Thomson Locations: WARSAW, NBP, Poland, Pawel

WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Poland's central bank lowered its interest rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday despite the country's double-digit inflation rate. The National Bank of Poland's monetary policy council announced that it was cutting the reference rate from 6.75% to 6%, and other interest rates by the same amount. Economists had been expecting a rate cut, but not such a large one. In conditions of high inflation, central banks tend to raise interest rates, a move that can help bring down inflation over time by discouraging consumption. Interest rate cuts, on the other hand, make financing cheaper and tends to encourage consumers and businesses to spend more.

Persons: Adam Glapinski, Marek Tatala, “, Ryszard Petru, ” Petru Organizations: National Bank of, Law, Justice, Freedom Foundation, Twitter Locations: WARSAW, Poland, National Bank of Poland, Warsaw, Ukraine

☆ Poland wants to boost its minimum wage by 20% — and it's got economists worried
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Polish government has proposed an increase to national minimum of around 20% in 2024, a move economists believe will keep inflation higher for longer. Jan Woitas/picture alliance via Getty ImagesPoland's government has proposed a record rise in the national minimum wage of more than 23%, a move economists are worried will exacerbate double-digit inflation. In an interview with state-controlled news agency PAP last month, Polish Family and Social Policy Minister Marlena Malag said the minimum wage increase was designed to help people cope with the increased cost of living. Consumer price inflation in Poland eased in May, but still increased 13% year-on-year. He highlighted that given a "notable increase" in the number of workers that receive minimum wage in Poland in recent years, the impact of the latest increase is likely to be "meaningful."

Persons: Jan Woitas, —, Donald Tusk, Marlena Malag, Adam Glapinski, Rafal Benecki, Benecki, Nicholas Farr Organizations: Justice, Getty Images, Coalition, European, Social, National Bank of Poland, Monetary, ING Poland, Capital Economics Locations: WARSAW, Poland, Warsaw, Central, Eastern Europe, Polish, Europe

Geoff Gottlieb, the IMF's Senior Regional Representative for Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe, warned of the potential for fiscal policy to fuel inflation and so force monetary policy to remain tighter for longer. "We think Polish fiscal policy can do more to help reduce inflation," he said in an interview. "A new fiscal impetus would likely add to inflationary pressures and could also necessitate additional monetary policy tightening." "Our recommendation is for the (Monetary Policy Council) to resume monetary policy tightening if key indicators - core inflation momentum, wage growth, and the economy - fail to slow as projected," he said, urging the MPC to make clear that talk of cuts was premature. The European Commission projects Poland's average inflation rate at 6% next year, the highest in the European Union, retreating from nearly twice that level expected this year.

☆ Central Europe's policymakers double down on hawkish message
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Jan Lopatka | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

As central Europe's central banks were faster than their major peers to hike rates, they had also been expected to lead the way in easing. That message was underlined on Thursday when February data showed industrial wage growth in the double digits. "We do not expect a rate hike," it said after the Czech policy meeting last week. CEE inflation pushing past a peakThe Polish central bank also struck somewhat hawkish tones at its news conference on Thursday after holding rates steady. Romania's central bank left rates unchanged on Tuesday and said inflation may come down faster than previously thought.

☆ Polish central bank leaves main interest rate unchanged
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WARSAW, April 5 (Reuters) - Poland's central bank held its main interest rate at 6.75% on Wednesday, as expected, and said it believes weakening gross domestic product growth, together with already implemented rate hikes, would help gradually curb inflation. The central bank's Monetary Policy Council now hopes that the rate hikes it has already implemented will see price growth return to single digits before the end of the year. Central bank governor Adam Glapinski has previously said that he expects inflation to fall to single digits around the beginning of September, paving the way for interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter. Investors are now waiting for more insight into the central bank's thinking when Glapinski holds a news conference on Thursday. On Tuesday, Romania's central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at 7.00%.

☆ No conditions for Polish rate cuts until end of 2025, says c.banker Kotecki
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

"Today there are not conditions (for rate cuts) until the end of the projection period, so until the end of 2025," he told private broadcaster TOK FM. Glapinski has said he expects inflation to fall to single digits at the turn of August and September. However, Kotecki said that inflation did not show signs of weakening and that prospects of it reaching single digits by the end of the year were receding. "What worries me is that inflation still does not show significant, lasting signs of weakening," he said. Reporting by Alan Charlish and Marek Strzelecki; Editing by Toby Chopra and Bernadette BaumOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Polish central bank governor hopes to cut rates in fourth quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

WARSAW, March 9 (Reuters) - The National Bank of Poland could cut interest rates in the fourth quarter of 2023, Poland's central bank governor said on Thursday, adding that he expected inflation to fall into single digits around September. "I hope that it will be possible to cut rates in the final quarter (of this year), but this is my opinion," Adam Glapinski told a news conference. On Wednesday, Poland's central bank slightly lowered its inflation forecasts for the coming three years, reinforcing expectations that interest rates will remain at current levels after it left them unchanged for a sixth consecutive month. Glapinski said he expected inflation would peak in February at around 18.5% and would then fall to single digits at the turn of August and September. Reporting by Pawel Florkiewicz, Anna Koper, Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk, Alan Charlish; Editing by Alison WilliamsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Polish c.bank governor Glapinski to hold press conference on Thursday
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

WARSAW, March 6 (Reuters) - Polish central bank governor Adam Glapinski will hold a press conference at 1400 GMT on Thursday, the bank said on Monday. Poland's Monetary Policy Council (MPC) meets to decide on interest rates on Tuesday and Wednesday. Reporting by Pawel FlorkiewiczOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Too early to talk about rate cuts, says Poland's Glapinski
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WARSAW, Feb 9 (Reuters) - Inflation in Poland should start slowing sharply after the first quarter and could fall to an annual rate of 6% by December, but it is still too early to talk about rate cuts, Central Bank Governor Adam Glapinski said on Thursday. It is too early to discuss rate cuts." Analysts said that despite Glapinski stressing that the bank has not officially closed its rate hiking cycle, limited rate cuts in the second half of the year could not be excluded. "We see increasing chances for some initial rate cuts before the end of 2023." Romania's central bank kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at 7.0% on Thursday, the first pause after a 16-month hiking cycle as it expects inflation to fall.

☆ Polish central banker Kotecki says no room for rate cut this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WARSAW, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Double-digit inflation in Poland leaves no room for loosening monetary policy this year but interest rates will not rise further, central banker Ludwik Kotecki told Reuters. Kotecki said even talking about lower rates at the moment risked weakening the impact of monetary policy. Kotecki's views follow comments last week by Central Bank Governor Adam Glapinski, who said he remained hopeful a rate cut could happen this year, despite still rising inflation rates. The MPC has de facto ended the hike cycle, although formally it is in a phase of monetary policy tightening. Talking about rate cuts at the moment is, in my opinion, a communication error," that weakens the impact of monetary policy, he said.

The Romanian central bank said slower economic growth and cheaper energy would help bring inflation down to single digits this year from over 16% now, earlier than previously forecast. "So the main question is when inflation in the region will fall enough that central banks will be willing to start normalising monetary conditions." Inflation is still expected to rise in early 2023 in some central European countries, based on central bank forecasts, before returning to single-digit territory by year-end. "This will help to improve external positions and lower inflation pressures in Central and Eastern Europe." "Given the dovish bias around the growth-inflation trade-off at Poland's central bank, we think the risk of premature policy easing is greatest there."

☆ Polish c.bank governor says no decision on ending rate-hike cycle
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Anna Koper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

WARSAW, Dec 8 (Reuters) - Poland's Monetary Policy Council (MPC) has made no decision about ending its tightening cycle, the central bank governor said on Thursday, as he reiterated that the series of rate hikes was paused rather than definitively finished. "We are still on hold," central bank governor Adam Glapinski told a news conference. "The Council... did not discuss whether to end the rate-hike cycle or not." Glapinski said he expected inflation would start to fall in March or April after rising at the beginning of 2023. "Then there will for sure be such a discussion in the Council.. whether to end the rate-hike cycle."

☆ Polish c.bank keeps rates on hold amid slowdown fears
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

All the bank's other interest rates were also left unchanged. Of 21 analysts polled by Reuters, 11 expected the main rate to rise by 25 basis points. The bank will publish a statement at 1745 GMT containing its latest economic forecasts, which Governor Adam Glapinski said would be key to Wednesday's decision on rates. On Tuesday, the Romanian central bank slowed the pace of its tightening, raising its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points. Reporting by Alan Charlish, Anna Koper, Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk, Pawel Florkiewicz, Marek Strzekecki Editing by Tomasz JanowskiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

A logo of the Polish Central Bank (NBP) is seen on its building in Warsaw, Poland, September 8, 2022. REUTERS/Kacper Pempel/File PhotoWARSAW, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Poland's central bank Governor Adam Glapinski and four other rate setters threatened legal action on Tuesday against some members of the Monetary Policy Council over public statements they have made about policy. The other members of the MPC are Tyrowicz, Litwiniuk and Ludwik Kotecki, a former deputy finance minister who has been critical of monetary policy. At a press conference last Thursday, Glapinski criticised MPC members who "take 37,300 zlotys ($7,437.69) a month for participating in one meeting during the month and criticise the actions of the whole body". The central bank kept its main interest rate at 6.75% at its Oct. 5 meeting following a run of 11 consecutive hikes.

☆ Analysis: Central Europe's policymakers try to call time on rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( Jason Hovet | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Czech Crown coins are seen in front of a displayed logo of Czech central bank (CNB) in this picture illustration taken April 1, 2017. Whether it can do so will depend much on wage pressures subsiding and how much a weakening market mood will hurt its currencies. "In Hungary, I think there is still road ahead (for rate hikes)," Juraj Kotian, an economist with Erste Group Bank, said. read moreAnalysts, though, see further rate hikes even after Tuesday. In August, the inflation rate slowed to 17.2% - the first sign of a price peak in central Europe.

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